(Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)Īs a 24th round first base draft pick, Ball was not necessarily going to be considered much of a prospect coming out of the 2019 draft (though he did get nearly $200,000 to sign, which is a nice bonus for a 24th round college bat). Maybe that’s how you can get yourself a relative steal?īall doesn’t quite fit what I was thinking – I was more thinking about guys who were SERIOUS top prospects back in 2019, and then have had BRUTAL starts to 2021 – but he’s like a softened version of it. My thinking was, yes, there’s risk that the lost development year just crushed and exposed that player, but it’s also possible he just needs time to adjust after such a long layoff in competitive games. In fact, I gotta tell you, the Cubs beat me to the punch, but here’s something I was mulling yesterday when writing up the Buyer’s Guide: if you can’t get a top prospect at this moment, maybe what you should shoot for is a guy who was a top prospect in 2019 and has had a rough start to 2020. I really like that the Cubs took a shot in this way. You would not bet on Ball becoming an impact big league bat for those reasons.īut the Cubs were shooting for upside in a deal like this, and when you have a carrying tool as loud as Ball’s power, sometimes that’s enough for a massive breakout in a new organization. So if Ball is not, on his own, blowing High-A pitching out of the water this year, it makes you much less optimistic that he can do it at Double-A later this year, and then at Triple-A next year, and then succeed in the big leagues – for the first time – at age 25/26. But many believe there is a prime development window, after which it is very difficult to maximize performance. Obviously there are ways to explain his age, and he’s moved as steadily as he could since being drafted out of college. The other big reason Ball was available in a trade like this is because he’s already 23 in High-A, and he’s not destroying the league (.206/.350/.394, 110 wRC+, 18.7% BB rate, 27.6% K rate). It’s why the Cubs got a guy like Alfonso Rivas for Tony Kemp, and a big part of why the Cubs could get Ball right now for a (down) Joc Pederson rental. That means more and more good bats start to “compete” at first base, so to speak, and the guys who are solely first basemen really have to rake to make it to The Show. They move there eventually because their bats are so good, but their ability to stick at their original position fades as they rise. When you evaluate him as a prospect, you have to keep that in mind, because it depresses the value significantly – not all big league first basemen were first basemen in the minors. He is a true first base prospect, who isn’t going to play anywhere else, isn’t necessarily going to have to become a pure designated hitter (but might). Ball, who just turned 23, is an absolute monster of a dude, listed at 6’6″ and 240 lbs.
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